Gartner, kampani yofufuza ndi kusanthula zaukadaulo wazidziwitso, inanena kuti mu 2024, opanga ma automaker apitiliza kugwira ntchito molimbika kuti athane ndi kusintha komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha mapulogalamu ndi magetsi, motero kubweretsa gawo latsopano la magalimoto amagetsi.
Mafuta ndi magetsi apeza ndalama zofananira mwachangu kuposa momwe amayembekezera
Mtengo wa batri ukutsika, koma mtengo wopangira magalimoto amagetsi utsika kwambiri chifukwa chaukadaulo wamakono monga gigacasting. Zotsatira zake, Gartner akuyembekeza kuti pofika chaka cha 2027 magalimoto amagetsi adzakhala otsika mtengo kupanga kusiyana ndi magalimoto a injini zoyaka mkati chifukwa cha teknoloji yatsopano yopangira komanso kutsika mtengo kwa batri.
Pankhani imeneyi, Pedro Pacheco, wachiŵiri kwa pulezidenti wofufuza ku Gartner, anati: “Makampani atsopano a OEM akuyembekeza kulongosolanso mmene makampani amagalimoto alili. Amabweretsa matekinoloje atsopano omwe amathandizira kuti mtengo wake ukhale wosalira zambiri, monga zomangamanga zapakati pagalimoto kapena kuphatikiza kufa-casting, zomwe zimathandizira kuchepetsa ndalama zopangira. mtengo ndi nthawi yosonkhanitsa, opanga magalimoto azikhalidwe sangachitire mwina koma kutengera zatsopanozi kuti apulumuke. ”
"Tesla ndi ena awona kupanga m'njira yatsopano," Pacheco adauza Automotive News Europe lipotilo lisanatulutsidwe.
Chimodzi mwazinthu zodziwika bwino za Tesla ndi "kuphatikizira kufa," zomwe zimatanthawuza kuponya magalimoto ambiri kukhala chidutswa chimodzi, m'malo mogwiritsa ntchito mfundo zambiri zowotcherera ndi zomatira. Pacheco ndi akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti Tesla ndi mtsogoleri watsopano pochepetsa mtengo wa msonkhano komanso mpainiya wophatikizira kufa.
Kutengera magalimoto amagetsi kwatsika pang'onopang'ono m'misika ina yayikulu, kuphatikiza United States ndi Europe, kotero akatswiri akuti ndikofunikira kuti opanga ma automaker ayambitse mitundu yotsika mtengo.
Pacheco adanenanso kuti ukadaulo wophatikizira kufa wokhawokha ukhoza kuchepetsa mtengo wa thupi mu zoyera ndi "osachepera" 20%, ndipo zochepetsera zina zitha kutheka pogwiritsa ntchito mapaketi a batri ngati zinthu zamapangidwe.
Ndalama za batri zakhala zikutsika kwa zaka zambiri, adatero, koma kutsika kwa mtengo wa msonkhano kunali "zinthu zosayembekezereka" zomwe zingabweretse magalimoto amagetsi pamtengo wofanana ndi magalimoto a injini zoyaka mkati mwamsanga kuposa momwe ankaganizira. "Tikufika pachimake pano kuposa momwe timayembekezera," adatero.
Makamaka, nsanja yodzipatulira ya EV imapatsa opanga ma automaker ufulu wopanga mizere yolumikizirana kuti igwirizane ndi mawonekedwe awo, kuphatikiza ma powertrains ang'onoang'ono ndi mabatire apansi.
Mosiyana ndi izi, nsanja zoyenera "multi-powertrains" zimakhala ndi malire, chifukwa zimafuna malo oti apeze thanki yamafuta kapena injini / kutumiza.
Ngakhale izi zikutanthauza kuti magalimoto amagetsi a batri adzakwaniritsa mtengo wofanana ndi magalimoto oyaka mkati mwagalimoto mwachangu kuposa momwe amayembekezerera poyamba, zidzakulitsanso mtengo wokonza zina zamagalimoto amagetsi a batri.
Gartner akulosera kuti pofika chaka cha 2027, mtengo wapakati wokonza ngozi zazikulu zokhudzana ndi magalimoto amagetsi ndi mabatire zidzakwera ndi 30%. Choncho, eni ake angakhale okonda kusankha kuwononga galimoto yamagetsi yomwe yawonongeka chifukwa ndalama zokonzanso zingakhale zapamwamba kuposa mtengo wake wopulumutsira. Momwemonso, chifukwa kukonza ngozi ndi zodula, ndalama za inshuwaransi yagalimoto zithanso kukhala zokwera, zomwe zimapangitsa makampani a inshuwaransi kukana kuperekedwa kwa mitundu ina.
Kutsitsa mwachangu mtengo wopangira ma BEV sikuyenera kukwera mtengo wokonza, chifukwa izi zitha kubweretsa kubweza kwa ogula pakapita nthawi. Njira zatsopano zopangira magalimoto amagetsi okwanira ziyenera kutumizidwa pamodzi ndi njira zomwe zimatsimikizira kuti ndalama zosamalira zimakhala zochepa.
Msika wamagalimoto amagetsi umalowa mu gawo la "kupulumuka kwamphamvu".
Pacheco adanena kuti ngati ndalama zowononga magalimoto amagetsi zimatanthawuza kuti mitengo yotsika mtengo yogulitsa imadalira wopanga, koma mtengo wapakati wa magalimoto amagetsi ndi magalimoto oyaka mkati ayenera kufika pofika chaka cha 2027. Koma adanenanso kuti makampani opanga magetsi monga BYD ndi Tesla ali ndi mphamvu zochepetsera mitengo chifukwa ndalama zawo ndizochepa, kotero kuchepetsa mtengo sikudzawononga kwambiri phindu lawo.
Kuonjezera apo, Gartner akuloserabe kukula kwakukulu kwa malonda a galimoto yamagetsi, ndi theka la magalimoto omwe amagulitsidwa mu 2030 kukhala magalimoto amagetsi oyera. Koma poyerekeza ndi "kuthamanga kwa golide" kwa opanga magalimoto amagetsi oyambirira, msika ukulowa mu nthawi ya "kupulumuka kwamphamvu kwambiri".
Pacheco adalongosola 2024 ngati chaka chosinthira msika wamagalimoto amagetsi ku Europe, pomwe makampani aku China monga BYD ndi MG akupanga ma network awo ogulitsa ndi mizere komweko, pomwe opanga magalimoto azikhalidwe monga Renault ndi Stellantis azikhazikitsa mitundu yotsika mtengo kwanuko.
"Zinthu zambiri zomwe zikuchitika pakadali pano sizingakhudze malonda, koma zikukonzekera zinthu zazikulu," adatero.
Pakalipano, magalimoto ambiri oyendetsa magalimoto amagetsi akhala akuvutika chaka chatha, kuphatikizapo Polestar, yomwe yawona kuti mtengo wake wagawo ukutsika kwambiri kuyambira pomwe adalemba, ndi Lucid, yomwe idadula 2024 kupanga 90%. Makampani ena omwe ali ndi mavuto akuphatikizapo Fisker, omwe akukambirana ndi Nissan, ndi Gaohe, omwe posachedwapa adadziwika kuti atsekedwa.
Pacheco adati, "Kalelo, oyambitsa ambiri adasonkhana m'munda wamagalimoto amagetsi pokhulupirira kuti atha kupeza phindu losavuta - kuchokera kwa opanga magalimoto kupita kumakampani opangira magalimoto amagetsi - ndipo ena mwa iwo adadalirabe kwambiri ndalama zakunja, zomwe zidawapangitsa kukhala opambana. osatetezeka kumsika. Zotsatira za zovuta. ”
Gartner akulosera kuti pofika chaka cha 2027, 15% yamakampani opanga magalimoto amagetsi omwe adakhazikitsidwa zaka khumi zapitazi adzapezeka kapena kugwa, makamaka omwe amadalira kwambiri ndalama zakunja kuti apitilize kugwira ntchito. Komabe, "Izi sizikutanthauza kuti magalimoto oyendetsa magetsi akuchepa, akungolowa kumene makampani omwe ali ndi katundu ndi ntchito zabwino kwambiri adzapambana makampani ena." Pacheco anatero.
Kuphatikiza apo, adanenanso kuti "maiko ambiri akusiya zolimbikitsa zokhudzana ndi magalimoto amagetsi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti msika ukhale wovuta kwambiri kwa osewera omwe alipo." Komabe, "tikulowa mu gawo latsopano lomwe magalimoto a Magetsi sangathe kugulitsidwa pazolimbikitsa / zololeza kapena zopindulitsa zachilengedwe. Ma BEV ayenera kukhala opangidwa bwino kwambiri poyerekeza ndi magalimoto oyaka mkati. ”
Ngakhale msika wa EV ukuphatikizana, kutumiza ndi kulowa ndikupitilira kukula. Gartner akuneneratu kuti magalimoto onyamula magetsi adzafika mayunitsi 18.4 miliyoni mu 2024 ndi mayunitsi 20.6 miliyoni mu 2025.
Nthawi yotumiza: Mar-20-2024